Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
